The war has drastically reduced Russia’s gas exports to Europe, prompting the Kremlin to seek alternative markets. However, China, cautious of over-reliance on Russia, cannot fully replace Europe’s demand. Putin’s plan to leverage gas deliveries to Europe has backfired, forcing him to pivot towards China for sustenance.

Gazprom, once a potent tool in Putin’s foreign policy, now faces a historic low in production. The company’s misalignment with LNG production and export has limited its capabilities. Putin’s attempts to bolster Gazprom’s international standing have faltered after Europe’s resilience to supply cuts.

While China offers potential, it cannot fully compensate for Europe’s demand. Gazprom’s market value has plummeted, making a recovery unlikely. The company’s production is at its lowest in 30 years, revealing vulnerability to international pressure and Putin’s strategic decisions.

China’s lessons from Europe’s dependence on Russia have led to cautious energy imports. A third gas contract with China is uncertain, as Russia’s negotiating position weakens. Gazprom’s significance to Putin persists, but investment in LNG export capacity is now recognized as crucial.

In pursuit of a new market, Gazprom eyes Turkey, proposing a “gas hub.” Meanwhile, domestic gas supply yields little profit. Russia’s energy landscape is shifting, and Gazprom’s influence faces uncertainty.

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